Friday, September 12, 2008

In this Age of Turbulence, what should be your pick? It needs only to focus on the urgent needs of India’s population.

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Obviously India! If one were to take the words of the maestro himself, India’s rice, wheat and cotton fields yield only fractions of their competitive counterparts in China।

shooting star performance of the Chinese economyAlan Greenspan, undoubtedly the most influential central banker of the past millennium, may have been terribly wrong with his policy of low interest rates that led to exactly the opposite, namely transforming the USA from the biggest creditor into the biggest debtor in less than three decades. While the former Federal Reserve chairman’s track record on financial forecasts may be spotty at best, Greenspan has to be credited with the fact that he was the first economist to recognise the shooting star performance of the Chinese economy. Everybody who acted on his advice has probably made a thick bundle in the past 19 years.

These days, Alan Greenspan has made another bold call: The brainy Indian elephant is set to overtake the smoke belching Chinese dragon, he projects in his recently published memoirs, pointingly titled, “The Age of Turbulence.”

Greenspan credits primarily Prime minister Manmohan Singh in his former role as finance minister for tearing the first holes in the highly state regulated economy that was held back by the “license raj” red tape system, inhibiting progress. He urges more of the same and cites his former deputy at the Federal Reserve, Harvard economist Martin Feldstein: “Cellphone service is widely available in India at low cost because it was regarded as a luxury and therefore left to the market, while electricity is hard to obtain because it has been regarded as a necessity and therefore managed by the government.”

Outlining India’s success in establishing itself as the leading services provider, Greenspan nevertheless reminds the subcontinent that it was always industrial production which brought lasting prosperity. He therefore argues that India will have to encourage rural labourers to integrate into the manufacturing process if they want to break the eternal wheel of poverty.


“For India to become the major player in the international arena that it aspires to be, it will need to build factories that entice a very large part of its agricultural workers to urban enclaves to produce labour-intensive exports, the time-honoured path of the successful Asian tigers and China,” writes Greenspan.

He points his finger at huge productivity gaps in agriculture. India’s rice, wheat and cotton fields yield only fractions of their competitive counterparts in China. His advice that Indian agriculture should be “freed” from government subsidies should be taken with a grain of salt, though. It would actually be more appropriate to direct such words to the USA and the EU who both lavishly shower their farmers with exactly the same in order to keep global competition at bay. But I entirely agree with his conclusion as follows. “Prime Minister Singh is a highly reputable reform-oriented economist, but he does not have the authoritarian clout that enabled Deng Xiaoping (China’s premier) to start China’s agricultural reform in 1978. Indian democracy is up to this task. It needs only to focus on the urgent needs of India’s population. A very large dose of deregulation and competition can spread India’s IT revolution to the rest of the country.”


Toni Straka


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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).


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