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Election results in Iran show that the incumbent president and his conservative friends have retained their hold on the key working class constituency, reports Mohammad Ali Qummi from Tehran
The post–election victory celebrations in Iran of about half-a-million supporters listening to victory speeches at Tehran’s Valiasr Square, the most striking feature was the contrast: more than ten times the number had gathered to listen to freshly re-elected President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as compared to what his main rival, Mir Hossein Mousavi, had been able to muster at the same spot a few days ago.
It also has signals of what lies ahead. In what may lead to raising Iran’s existing tensions with the West and Israel, Ahmadinejad’s return as president with a sweeping margin struck a raw nerve with the western establishment. Iran’s interior minister, Sadeq Mahsouli, while announcing the result, said Ahmadinejad won 62.6 per cent of the popular vote, beating his reformist rival Mousavi, who got 33.75 per cent. The national voting percentage stood at a whopping 85 per cent.
The results were received with shock and anger by Mousavi supporters. Thousands of them marched into Tehran to protest. Many pelted stones at baton-wielding police. ‘Down with the dictator’, they shouted as they broke out into the central Valiasr Square, close to the interior ministry. The number swelled after Mousavi declared that he would not give in to the ‘dangerous scenario’ faced by Iran as a result of the strongly contested vote. “Ahmadinejad has indeed won. But the share of the vote has left me perplexed. The opposition in Iran may protest this election as being fraudulent. It at least proves that the nation is in flux,” Alireza Nader of Rand Corporation told TSI.
Several western analysts and think tanks have declared the Iran poll result as fraudulent. “It is easy to see why the western media cottoned on to the “fraudulent election” line in Iran. It is their pre-conceived notion. There is talk of how ‘ballot papers ran out’ and how ‘names of supporters of Mousavi’ were missing. They give reference to “exit-polls”, with the sample size of 4,000, which were done in northern Tehran and which prominently declared Mousavi ahead. Western diplomats and analysts – virtually the only source of information – pointed out how “entire Iran came out in support of Mousavi” after the results were declared.
But there is a catch. Indian readers could well draw up a parallel: when was the last time exit polls in Asia proved right? In a vibrant democracy like India, they have been quite off the mark. Also, unlike other countries in the Middle East, Iran has a huge population of about 70 million. An exit poll with a sample size of 4,000 is at best inadequate.
Also, just as Delhi is not India, Tehran is not Iran. Most of these experts have the list of usual suspects as their sources and it is quite likely that sticking to just a set of people could have resulted in overlooking other aspirations.
Mehran Kamrava, a specialist on Iranian politics at Georgetown University, told TSI: “Most of these journalists from New York Times, CNN and the likes have been talking to people in north Tehran, who tend to vote overwhelmingly against Ahmadinejad.” It is likely that they got it wrong.
Indeed, the tendency has been to get carried away with the largely urban-centric rhetoric which finds its most vocal supporters in Tehran. It may not reflect the mood in other parts.
For more articles, Click on IIPM Article.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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Election results in Iran show that the incumbent president and his conservative friends have retained their hold on the key working class constituency, reports Mohammad Ali Qummi from Tehran
The post–election victory celebrations in Iran of about half-a-million supporters listening to victory speeches at Tehran’s Valiasr Square, the most striking feature was the contrast: more than ten times the number had gathered to listen to freshly re-elected President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as compared to what his main rival, Mir Hossein Mousavi, had been able to muster at the same spot a few days ago.It also has signals of what lies ahead. In what may lead to raising Iran’s existing tensions with the West and Israel, Ahmadinejad’s return as president with a sweeping margin struck a raw nerve with the western establishment. Iran’s interior minister, Sadeq Mahsouli, while announcing the result, said Ahmadinejad won 62.6 per cent of the popular vote, beating his reformist rival Mousavi, who got 33.75 per cent. The national voting percentage stood at a whopping 85 per cent.
The results were received with shock and anger by Mousavi supporters. Thousands of them marched into Tehran to protest. Many pelted stones at baton-wielding police. ‘Down with the dictator’, they shouted as they broke out into the central Valiasr Square, close to the interior ministry. The number swelled after Mousavi declared that he would not give in to the ‘dangerous scenario’ faced by Iran as a result of the strongly contested vote. “Ahmadinejad has indeed won. But the share of the vote has left me perplexed. The opposition in Iran may protest this election as being fraudulent. It at least proves that the nation is in flux,” Alireza Nader of Rand Corporation told TSI.
Several western analysts and think tanks have declared the Iran poll result as fraudulent. “It is easy to see why the western media cottoned on to the “fraudulent election” line in Iran. It is their pre-conceived notion. There is talk of how ‘ballot papers ran out’ and how ‘names of supporters of Mousavi’ were missing. They give reference to “exit-polls”, with the sample size of 4,000, which were done in northern Tehran and which prominently declared Mousavi ahead. Western diplomats and analysts – virtually the only source of information – pointed out how “entire Iran came out in support of Mousavi” after the results were declared.
But there is a catch. Indian readers could well draw up a parallel: when was the last time exit polls in Asia proved right? In a vibrant democracy like India, they have been quite off the mark. Also, unlike other countries in the Middle East, Iran has a huge population of about 70 million. An exit poll with a sample size of 4,000 is at best inadequate.
Also, just as Delhi is not India, Tehran is not Iran. Most of these experts have the list of usual suspects as their sources and it is quite likely that sticking to just a set of people could have resulted in overlooking other aspirations.
Mehran Kamrava, a specialist on Iranian politics at Georgetown University, told TSI: “Most of these journalists from New York Times, CNN and the likes have been talking to people in north Tehran, who tend to vote overwhelmingly against Ahmadinejad.” It is likely that they got it wrong.
Indeed, the tendency has been to get carried away with the largely urban-centric rhetoric which finds its most vocal supporters in Tehran. It may not reflect the mood in other parts.
For more articles, Click on IIPM Article.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
IIPM Best B-school
IIPM
IIPM Global B-School
IIPM Alumni Officially on Facebook
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
2,300 IIPM students get jobs
The Most Revolutionary Concept In Education PLANMAN CHE CENTRE FOR HIGHER EDUCATION, Supported by IIPM India’s Leading B-School
PLANMAN CHE (Centre for Higher Education)
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
IIPM Ranked No. 1 B-School In Global Exposre - Zee...
IIPM: History, and Founder Director Dr. M.K. Chaudhuri
IIPM New Delhi, The Indian Institute of Planning and Management, India
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IIPM - International
Business and Economy - India's Most Influential Business and ...
Rankings IIPM, The Indian Institute of Planning and Management India
Management Certification, IIPM India
(IIPM) Management Education Institute India
Indian Institute of Planning and Management: IIPM New Delhi, India
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
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